Dragons' two losing bonus points shifted things about a bit ...

Toulon v Cheetahs
Stade v Lyon
--
Benetton v Connacht
Cardiff v Sale

---

Scarlets v Brive
Bristol v Clermont
--
Glasgow v Dragons
Lions v Racing

London Irish throwing a spanner in the works in Montpellier.
Another 14 points in the second half and they would overhaul Sale and maybe even Clermont.
My plan to bring Clermont to the Sportsground could be back on ...

This is roughly he draw so far, grouped by QF/SF (I think)


Toulon v Loser Dragons/Lions
Winner Pau/Cheetahs or Stade v Lyon
--
Benetton v Connacht
Cardiff v Sale

---

Scarlets v Brive
Bristol v Clermont
--
Glasgow v Winner Pau/Cheetahs or Stade
Winner Dragons/Lions v Racing

So I don't think we have any real preference for results in today's games.
Maybe slightly better if Lions lose as they might be slightly more likely to take out Toulon (but like, if they can't beat Dragons, etc.)
Cheetahs win might be marginally better as they are more likely to lose to Lyon, who might beat Toulon away and then be away in the semi, but then again a trip to Pau would be nice.

I'm fuming over this. That was a shambolic team selection for a game in which we could have guaranteed a run of home games.

Why go all out last week if you are going to fap it all away the next week?

Ah here ...
After all Brive, and Zebre, and Elliot Stooke did for us ...

Away to Benetton
If we win that, QF would be either away to Cardiff or home to 10th in Pool B (worst of Ulster/Sale/Clermont as above)
Then it would be away to Toulon in the semi (unless they lose - but they are home all the way).

EDIT: and now we don't even get a chance to play Clermont

Allez Brive!

Bonus Point win: First
Regular win: Second
Draw: Second
One bonus point: Fourth
No BP and lose by 9 or less: Fourth
No BP and lose by 10 or more: Fifth

So we can still be home all the way, or away all the way.
Newcastle are out and playing for pride.

The plots thickens..Brive 17-3 to Cardiff at half time..

Well I didn't predict those results.
The format still sucks but we knocked a bit of drama out of it.
We can now potentially lose by up to and including 9 points and still be in the top 4.
For third we need a draw or two bonus points.
For second a try bonus point.
And if Cardiff don't win we can potentially be top.

Brive have included more frontliners than usual for tomorrow so won't be a pushover at home, but Cardiff continuing to take this very seriously.
Based on the bookie odds, the winless team most likely to get off the mark is (by some distance) Newcastle

So we'll know exactly what we need by kick-off.

www.cardiffrugby.wales/news/ca-brive-v-c...ugby-kick-off-change

Brive v Cardiff now at 3:15pm Irish Time on Saturday due to the weather.

Yeah, I expect nothing out of Clermont. 9th/10th will most likely come down to the Ulster Sale game.
Sale win: 9. Clermont 10. Ulster
Sale LBP: 9. Sale 10. Clermont
Sale No LBP: 9. Clermont 10. Sale

London Irish or Northampton could get 10th if they win but I doubt either of them will.

In terms of the drop down sides from Heineken Pool B, Clermont in 8th on 6 points are apparently sending the kids to Cape Town. You then have Sale in 9th on 5 and Ulster in 10th on 3. Ulster host Sale on Saturday night.

Curveball.
So we now just need a LBP for a home R16. If we don't get it, I would fancy Bristol to make up the points difference (17) against Perpignan.
A bonus point win guarantees 3rd and we would also need Brive to get a result at home to Cardiff to sneak into the top 2 (or Zebre to do something away to Toulon but let's not be silly).

1. Cardiff 15 points
2. Toulon 15 points
3. Connacht 14 points
4. Glasgow 14 points
5. Bristol 9 points.

Bristol Bears have been deducted five match points and handed a suspended fine of €10,000 following an independent Disciplinary Hearing arising from the club’s EPCR Challenge Cup, Round 1 and Round 2 fixtures against USAP and Zebre Parma respectively. Bristol Bears were charged with misconduct by EPCR as the club was believed to have breached the 2022/23 Tournament Rules by selecting an ineligible player, Elliott Stooke, as a replacement in their match day squads for both fixtures in Pool A.​

Just spotted this, nothing really we didn't know but hadn't thought of it:
www.the42.ie/south-africa-champions-cup-home-5970228-Jan2023/
Cheetahs could potentially finish 4th (if they beat Pau in Parma), but they're not allowed play at home so their R16 game would presumably also be in Parma, probably against Racing. You'd fancy Racing there (unlike in Bloemfontein, where they'd hardly be bothered). If they then won their away QF in Cardiff, they would be away to whoever comes though our likely section of the draw.
So if we make it that far, it could be a home semi against Racing, with a Dublin final as the prize, which would make for a nice climax to a fairly uninspiring season ...

Pinky's updated fixture list is:
Home to Clermont
Away to Benetton
Home to Racing
Home(ish) to Toulon

EDIT: Bookies just put up the handicaps and if those were to be the results, Racing would be 11th, with Lyon, Bordeaux and Gloucester all squeezing past them, so you could replace Racing with Bordeaux in the above. Though that is based on Lyon beating Bulls and Gloucester getting a LBP in Bordeaux, neither of which I personally fancy, so I'm sticking with my prediction. But now I have thoroughly overthought it and my head hurts so I am going to lie down.