The Challenge Cup comes into the equation for all three leagues.


The seventh-ranked club from the TOP 14, or the winner of the Challenge Cup if from the TOP 14 and not already qualified for the Champions Cup.

The seventh-ranked club from the Aviva Premiership, or the winner of the Challenge Cup if from the Aviva Premiership and not already qualified for the Champions Cup.

The eight and ninth-ranked clubs from the PRO12, or the winner of the Challenge Cup if from the PRO12 and not already qualified for the Champions Cup. This club will take the place in the play-offs of the ninth-ranked club.

So at least 5 of the Challenge Cup quarter finals - Edinburgh, Brive, Gloucester, Cardiff and Stade - could be looking at that avenue for quaification.

With Connacht potentially headed for the playoffs, I thought I'd take a look at who they might face from England or France.
The Top 14 and Premiership each just have one place in the playoffs, but crucially they are guaranteed home advantage in the semi-final, where they each face a Pro 12 team, with home advantage for the final decided by a coin toss.
Unlike the Pro12 it's a straighforward top 6 that qualify with seventh going into the playoff.

In the Top 14, a bookie has Toulouse and Castres as joint sixth favourites to win the title at 20/1 ahead of Bordeaux at 66/1 and behind Racing at 10/1.
Now I realise being sixth favourites to win is not the same as being favourites to finish sixth, but it's a decent indication.
I guess the reasoning is that surprise leaders La Rochelle, 15 points clear of 7th placed Bordeaux, have done enough to stay in the top 6 and that Racing 92, while currently tenth but with a game in hand, will eventually get their act together and move up the table. With Toulon and Montpellier likely to at least hold their current positions and Clermont a dead cert, that leaves one of Toulouse or Castres having to make way and thus head for the playoffs.
So we may be headed for a familiar part of France again.
Of course there is a long way to go yet so mid-table French games may provide a surprise source of entertainment of a spring Sunday. Keep an eye on Bordeaux (mmm ... Claret).

The Premiership is a little more confusing. Mr Bookie has Gloucester (groan, not again) seventh favourites at 200/1 behind Northampton (125/1) and ahead of Quins (400/1). Odds are probably even less reliable than in France as in France it is a six way knockout so there is more of a relationship between winning the thing and finishing in the top 6.
The odds are very strange though. Why Harlequins are more than ten times the price of Leicester despite being only a single point behind on the table is beyond me. Doesn't seem a dramatic difference in the severity of their remaining fixtures. Maybe a wiser sage can enlighten me?
But we are presumably looking at one of Tigers, Saints, Quins, Glaws or Falcons. There, I've narrowed it down to just under half the league for ye. Another trip to Newcastle please, it'll be a whole different story with eight men on the bench